Welcome to the third annual Action on Fourth Bowl Predictions article. This is the place every year, where we deliver you a side and total on every single College Football bowl game. We are not kidding when we say this – You are going to want to take these picks. Last year we crushed it during bowl season and this season we have been dialed in every Saturday picking winners left and right. Below is our profitable and proven history:
2020: 14-6 (+7.4 Units)
2021: 45-28-1 (Including our National Championship Picks) (+14.2 Units)
Thankfully, there will be no covid cancellations like last year. Additionally, last year, the public dominated Vegas. Finally, don’t let anyone tell you that there are too many bowl games. What else would you rather watch Kings vs Magic? CFB is the best.
Top Picks:
- Ohio/Wyoming Over 42.5
- USC/Tulane Under 62.5
- Syracuse +9
- Ohio St/Georgia Under 62.5
- ND/SC Under 51.5
- Alabama -4
(All times are ET)
Friday, Dec. 16
Hometown Lenders Bahamas Bowl
Miami (Ohio) vs. UAB
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11:30 a.m., ESPN
Play: UAB -11 and Under 45
We think a large theme for these bowl games will be the amount of motivation out of defenses. Will these players be motivated to hit the running back extra hard to get him down or will there be multiple broken tackles? Food for thought.
This is an under game. UAB’s last four games have gone over and Vegas is begging you to take this over by setting it at a low low number of 45. You see the MAC team and you say over, right? Not so fast – 97% of the money is on this over.
UAB has seen better competition and will play better defense for the cover and total to cash.
Duluth Trading Cure Bowl
UTSA vs. Troy
Exploria Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ESPN
Play: UTSA +1.5 and Under 54.5
We are very very very confident in this under. These two teams finished the season strong scoring lots of points with Troy’s last three games going over and UTSA’s last two games going over. You think of UTSA you think points… not today.
The spread is more of a toss-up. UTSA plays fast and has seen better competition. Take the points.
Saturday, Dec. 17
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Cincinnati vs. Louisville
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN
Play: Cincinnati +2 and Over 40
Interesting one being played at Fenway. Cincinnati was a pathetic 3-9 ATS this season but we will give them one last chance. Take this low total over.
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Play: Florida +9 and Under 53
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl Presented by Stifel
Washington State vs. Fresno State
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Play: Fresno St -4 and Over 53
LendingTree Bowl
Rice vs. Southern Miss
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Play: Rice +6.5 and Over 45.5
New Mexico Bowl
SMU vs. BYU
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
7:30 p.m., ABC
Play: SMU -4 and Over 65.5
Frisco Bowl
North Texas vs. Boise State
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Play: North Texas +12 and Over 63
Monday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Marshall vs. UConn
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Play: Marshall -10 and Over 41
Marshall has seen better competition. They run away with this game hopefully taking the over with them.
Tuesday, Dec. 20
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Eastern Michigan vs. San Jose State
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Play: San Jose St -4 and Over 52.5
San Jose St spread may be our favorite play in this entire article. Put a chunk of your budget on this spread. They are due for a cover and are just as fast as EMU. SJSU takes the over with them.
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
Liberty vs. Toledo
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Play: Liberty +3.5 and Over 53.5
We really like the Flames in this game. Toledo had a solid season but came up one short of their predicted regular season win total. They played the game of their lives in the MAC Championship winning 17-7 – Action on Fourth had them marked down as one of our largest locks of the year. However, Liberty had a solid season too yet finished 5-7 ATS. We like them in this matchup, getting the 3.5 points. This game feels like an over as well.
Wednesday, Dec. 21
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Western Kentucky vs. South Alabama
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
9 p.m., ESPN
Play: South Alabama -4.5 and Under 56
These two teams feel very similar and with the line opening as -2.5 and pushing to 4.5 now, it does seem like South Bama is the right side. Good defenses keep this high total under.
Thursday, Dec. 22
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Baylor vs. Air Force
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Play: Air Force +4.5 and Over 44.5
We initially leaned the Bears spread but this feels like a classic example of the Power 5 team taking the action and the lowkey non power 5 team covering. If Air Force decides to cover, then they’ll drive the scoring pushing this total over.
Friday, Dec. 23
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Louisiana vs. Houston
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
3 p.m., ESPN
Play: ULL +7 and Under 58.5
ULL taking a lot of sharp action. We’ll follow and believe this under should hit as well. Htown had 9 games go over, so the Vegas market has this total a bit high.
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Wake Forest vs. Missouri
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN
Play: Wake Forest -1 and Over 60
Finally, another Power 5 game. First, this total isn’t high enough. Wake will get their 30+ points and Missouri will be right behind them. Wake Forest is the better team. More organized on offense and Missouri doesn’t have many pieces.
Saturday, Dec. 24
EasyPost Hawai’i Bowl
Middle Tennessee State vs. San Diego State
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Play: SDSU -7 and Over 49
Christmas Eve action. We like the more notable Aztecs, who seem to be the heavy weight in this matchup and should carry this total to the finish line.
Monday, Dec. 26
Quick Lane Bowl
New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green
Ford Field (Detroit)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Play: Bowling Green -3.5 and Under 47.5
We’ll go with the MAC team and the under as NM ST has been hot on the overs.
Tuesday, Dec. 27
Camellia Bowl
Georgia Southern vs. Buffalo
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN
Play: Buffalo +3.5 and Over 67.5
The Action on Fourth scouts did not cover either of these teams closely this year. The files are showing that Buffalo is very due for a cover, so we’ll lock them in along with playing this over. It’s high and appears to be a bit high, but we’ll be suckers and root for points.
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Memphis vs. Utah State
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
3:15 p.m., ESPN
Play: Utah St +7.5 and Under 61.5
We like Utah St a lot in this game. Memphis is known for scoring, but we think this Utah St defense can keep it close and help the total to go under while doing that. Utah St finished 4-8 ATS.
TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Coastal Carolina vs. East Carolina
Protective Life Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
6:45 p.m., ESPN
Play: CC +8.5 and Under 62.5
This is a huge under game. Both teams finished with overs hitting and combine that with $ on the over. We will gladly take this under. CC was overrated by the Vegas market all year finishing the season 4-7-1 ATS. They get the cover in the Birmingham Bowl.
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Wisconsin vs. Oklahoma State
Chase Field (Phoenix)
10:15 p.m., ESPN
Play: Ok St +3.5 and Over 43.5
Absolutely love this game. Two similar teams that have their starting QBs in the portal, Mertz and Sanders. We specifically remember Wisconsin’s bowl game last year as it was almost the exact same 9 pm late time slot against Arizona St and the -7 spread pushed and the total went under. The reason we vividly remember this game was because it was the start of the hot streak for the Under Two, where we proceed to go 35-6-2 in the Lock of the Day.
Two teams that don’t like to score have this total super low. We like the over.
The Wisconsin style football surprisingly does well against other Power 5 teams. However, Ok St is a veteran group of guys with Gundy under the helm. This game fairs well for the Cowboys.
Wednesday, Dec. 28
Military Bowl Presented by Peraton
UCF vs. Duke
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN
Play: UCF +3 and Under 62.5
UCF hasn’t covered a game since November 12th, while Duke has been hot ATS. Duke always has high over/unders because of their fast offense and bad defense. Duke doesn’t show up for the bowl game and UCF and the under cash.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Kansas vs. Arkansas
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Play: Arkansas +3 and Under 68.5
Honestly, couldn’t think of a more perfect matchup. Two fast paced teams from power conferences that finished 6-6. A over/under of 68.5 is crazy. KU finished 8-4 in O/Us and Arkansas finished 9-3. Kansas finished the year with their last three games going over and Arkansas had their last two games go over… that’s a recipe for an under.
Unlike, half of these QBs who opt out of bowl games. Arkansas QB, KJ Jefferson, is returning for the Hogs next year and is playing in this bowl. That alone made us flip from Kansas +3 to Arkansas spread.
San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Oregon vs. North Carolina
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Play: UNC +14 and Over 72
Pac-12 vs ACC should be interesting. Always love the Holiday Bowl because it’s the only FOX bowl game, and we get to hear Gus Johnson one last time.
We think Oregon is on the fraudulent side being out there in the west. If you are reading this before Bo Nix has decided if he is going to play, then take UNC right now. We believe the 14 point spread is factoring in Bo Nix playing and will be cut to 10 if he sits out. Nix already stated he is returning to College Football next year. UNC finished the season 1-4 ATS including not covering their last three games.
Pathetic defense combined with UNC’s love to score quick has this total all the way at 72. Take it over.
TaxAct Texas Bowl
Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN
Play: Ole Miss -3.5 and 69.5
Laneeee Trainnnn. Jaxson Dart should be playing for the Running Rebels, and we think they will destroy this Texas Tech team. Ole Miss was overrated by the Vegas algos all season by finishing 4-7-1 ATS. A lot of big money pouring in on the Rebels.
No real confidence on either side of this total, so we’ll root for points.
Thursday, Dec. 29
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Syracuse vs. Minnesota
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2 p.m., ESPN
Play: Syracuse +9 and Under 42
The Cuse haven’t covered a game since October 22nd. They are 0-5 ATS in their last five games. +9 is a charitable donation to Action on Fourth. We like them to win this game. Minnesota will run the ball with Ibrahim chewing a
ton of clock and ultimately this game goes under. Only way Cuse cover is if this game goes under.
Cheez-It Bowl
Oklahoma vs. Florida State
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Play: Oklahoma +8.5 and Under 65.5
The weaker ACC reveals itself in this matchup. Boomer Sooner should not be that big of an underdog. Another high over/under that we like under.
Valero Alamo Bowl
Texas vs. Washington
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Play: Washington +4 and Under 67.5
This is a sneaky good game that we are pumped for. Michael Penix, Jr has done a lot for us. He came through a lot two years ago at Indiana, and he has delivered when we bet on the Huskies this year – especially against Michigan St, Oregon and Washington St. We’ll take them one more time as the Texas brand name may be moving this line four points itself.
Under is a go as we see that last two games for each team have gone over. This total is too high.
Friday, Dec. 30
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Maryland vs. NC State
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Play: Maryland -1 and Over 47.5
Greasy east coast game. NC St is one of the worst 8-win teams ever, and we are not sure if America knows that. Take the terps along with the over.
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Pittsburgh vs. UCLA
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Play: UCLA -3.5 and Under 54.5
The classic CBS Sun Bowl. Another pleasant listen to Nessler and Danielson.
This is a system play. UCLA has not covered their last three games while Pitt has been good ATS. If Dorian Thompson-Robinson decides to play for the Bruins (He has not stated whether he will or won’t play) then this gets added to one of our top plays in the article. If he doesn’t play this may move to a pick ‘em and we’d still like the Bruins.
The Under is a go. Both teams had their overs hitting this year and finished the season hot.
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Notre Dame vs. South Carolina
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Play: South Carolina +2.5 and Under 51.5
If you believe that the SEC is that much better you take the Gamecocks in this matchup like we are. This under is one of our favorite plays in the article. ND has seen its last five games go over and SC’s last two games have gone over pushing this total a bit too high. ND doesn’t have the fastest offense.
We applaud Spencer Rattler for not opting out. He understands that this is a prime way to raise his NFL draft stock along with supporting his teammates and fans throughout the entire season. These bowl games should matter to the players and fans.
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Ohio vs. Wyoming
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., Barstool
Play: Wyoming +1.5 and Over 43
Should be a fun one with the Barstool guys calling the game. Goes to show how far the Barstool guys have made it… owning the broadcast rights and naming rights for a relevant College Football Bowl game.
The over in this game is one of our favorite plays. Wyoming has seen unders hit in its last five games while Ohio’s last three games have gone under. We also confidently believe Wyoming is the better team.
Capital One Orange Bowl
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 7 Clemson
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
8 p.m. ET, ESPN
Play: Tennessee +6.5 and Over 63.5
A true Orange Bowl. Our inside SEC guy picked up rumors that the Tennessee defense has completely quit. Okay, Over. Vols and Clemson’s last game finished under.
Tennessee is an eye test play. This is an example of SEC > ACC. Joe Milton is in for Hendon Hooker (Who should’ve won the Heisman if he never got injured.) and is more than capable of torching the Tigers.
Saturday, Dec. 31
TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Iowa vs. Kentucky
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
Noon, ABC
Play: Kentucky +2 and Over 31.5
How did these two teams get scheduled again for another bowl matchup. Not going to complain because it is a greasy Midwest matchup that may fuel a mini rivalry. This is a historically low O/U at 31.5 as both teams are pathetic on offense and Kentucky finished 1-11 against the O/U. A close game will help this low total go over. This isn’t the NFL! These low totals actually do have a chance to go over.
We think Kentucky is the better team. Combine that with Iowa playing a scrub who hasn’t played a collegiate snap because Sam Petras is injured means we are locking in the cats.
Allstate Sugar Bowl
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 9 Kansas State
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Noon, ESPN
Play: Alabama -4 and Under 55.5
Alabama flexes its muscles and doesn’t give K State a chance. The Tide haven’t covered their last four games. Kansas St won’t be able to score against the Tide. Under
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
4 p.m., ESPN
Play: Michigan -7.5 and Over 58.5
We have a bad feeling that Michigan has a legit chance to win it all… and even worse that we might get a Michigan vs Ohio St championship game… guess its good for ratings…
From top to bottom this Michigan roster is better than TCU. Duggan for TCU can ball but so can JJ McCarthy. Offense prevails for the over.
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Ohio State
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
8 p.m., ESPN
Play: Ohio St +6.5 and Under 62.5
It’s always one favorite and one dog, when it comes to final four like scenarios. Here’s our underdog. Georgia is hands down the better team and has shown that all year, yet we have a sneaky suspicion that CJ Stroud has an NFL-hyped performance and prevails over the bulldog defense.
This under is one of our favorite plays in the article. The only way OSU stands a chance on covering is by getting stops. OSU finished with its last three games going over and Georgia had its last two games go over… pushing this total higher.
Monday, Jan. 2
ReliaQuest Bowl (Former Outback Bowl)
Mississippi State vs. Illinois
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN2
Play: Illini -1 and Over 46
Motivation is an understatement in this game. Miss St coach, Mike Leach passed away in December, and you can safely assume they will put it all on the line for Mike. Seniority out of State QB, Will Rogers, will lead this total over. We believe the Illini will need to pass to beat this Miss St defense and in doing so will help this total go over. Finally, the Illini’s top safety and CB, Brown and Witherspoon are saving their bodies for the NFL draft. Witherspoon will likely be a top 20 pick.
Illini QB, Tommy De Vito, will have a lot to play for as well as he may earn another year of CFB eligibility and in doing so give his NFL chances some life. De Vito has capable WRs on the outside. Does Leach not being there affect the bulldogs positively or negatively? Take the Illini.
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
LSU vs. Purdue
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m., ABC
Play: Purdue +14 and Under 56.5
Purdue is the play. We thought this should be closer to a 3 – 5 point spread. Purdue plays too slow for LSU to cover 14. The under needs to be locked in as well with LSU’s last three games going over. Brian Kelly chokes another big game.
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
No. 10 USC vs. No. 16 Tulane
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Play: USC -2.5 and Under 62.5
Easy picks for this game. We can’t tell you how much we like this under. It is the best play in this article. USC and Tulane’s last four games have gone over. Bookmakers have set this total to high. USC finished 10-3 in O/Us.
USC is clearly the better team. The Heisman winning QB doesn’t lose. Williams said he is playing despite a hamstring issue from the Pac-12 championship.
Rose Bowl Game
No. 8 Utah vs. No. 11 Penn State
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN
Play: Penn St +2.5 and Under 52
The Granddaddy of ‘em all. The best for last. This is Action on Fourth’s true championship game. The sun setting on the San Gabriel mountains in Pasadena doesn’t get much better of a scene.
Penn St is the better team and will show the Pac-12 champ up. Sean Clifford has had a heck of a career at Penn St and finished his career with a bang. Cam Rising is a great guy, but he gets distracted and the Utah O doesn’t show up. Under game.
Good luck!