This is the second annual Action on Fourth Bowl prediction article. Last year we went an impressive 14-6 (+7.4 units) in the sixteen games we covered. This year we are going to cover all 43 bowl games, which includes the two playoff games. Additionally, we will be picking a side and total on every single bowl game. Expecting to do better than last year.
Friday, Dec. 17th
Bahamas Bowl – Middle Tennessee vs. Toledo – Noon (All times are ET), ESPN
Play: Toledo -10.5 and Under 54
Toledo will blow MTSU out of the water today. Not even concerned about the hook. Toledo had a more difficult schedule and will be ready to dominate. Also, take the under as it’s a bit high.
Tailgreeter Cure Bowl – Northern Illinois vs. Coastal Carolina – 6 p.m., ESPN2
Play: Coastal Carolina -12 and Under 62.5
The MAC was a letdown this season. NIU has scored a lot of points in their games pushing this total higher. Take the under and lay the points with a good CC offense.
Saturday, Dec. 18
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl – Western Kentucky vs. Appalachian State – 11 a.m., ESPN
Play: App St. -3 and Under 66.5
WKU’s defense is not good. They allowed 38 to Army, 33 to Indiana and 48+ in three other games. App. St can score too and everyone will think this is going to be a 40-35 shootout. Not so fast. Take this high under and rely on App. St’s defense to get a few stops.
Cricket Celebration Bowl – South Carolina State vs. Jackson State – Noon, ABC
Play: Jackson St -10 and Over 42.5
No reason to outthink this one. Jackson St is the better team and take the over in case SC State decides to keep it close. Deion Sanders will get his team going.
PUBG Mobile New Mexico Bowl – UTEP vs. Fresno State – 2:15 p.m., ESPN
Play: UTEP +11.5 and Over 51.5
Fresno St. has had some quality games this year beating UCLA and losing to Oregon by a TD, but this is only an 11.5 point spread. Public is taking the team they know / heard of… take UTEP. Very low over hits.
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl – UAB vs. BYU – 3:30 p.m., ABC
Play: UAB +6.5 and Over 54.5
Take the points with UAB. They’ve been competitive in all of their games this year and the public will likely be on the #19 ranked Cougars. BYU is coming off a great win against USC so a very likely let down situation for the Cougars. Both teams can also score when needed, and they’ll need to in this game. Expect a shootout.
LendingTree Bowl – Eastern Michigan vs. Liberty – 5:45 p.m., ESPN
Play: Liberty -9.5 and Over 58.5
Easy one. Liberty, Liberty, Liberty… Liberty. Liberty hasn’t covered in their last three games. Let’s hope they still have the motivation to beat up the lesser EMU team. We love the over in this game. Liberty feels like they could put up 35 alone. EMU is 5-7 O/U and Liberty is 4-7-1… recipe for the over.
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl pres. by Stifel – Utah State vs. Oregon State – 7:30 p.m., ABC
Play: Oregon St. -7 and Under 67.5
Decent stat here: Since 2016, the Pac-12 is 8-22-1 against the spread in bowl games. Of the six Pac-12 teams with a bowl game this year, Oregon St is the only one that is favorited. However, Utah St. is not good, and they are coming off their own personal super bowl by upsetting San Diego St. Lay the number here, and we love this under. Utah St. is 10-3 O/U this year and this total is way too high.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl – Louisiana vs. Marshall – 9:15 p.m., ESPN
Play: Marshall +4 and Over 55
This over feels like a sucker bet because it opened at 50 and the over got hammered up to 55. ULL is only 3-10 in O/U’s this year. This Marshall team never put up any impressive results, but the fact that this is only a 4-point spread tells us to take the dog.
Monday, Dec 20
Myrtle Beach Bowl Presented by TaxAct – Old Dominion vs. Tulsa – 2:30 p.m., ESPN
Play: ODU +9 and Over 53.5
ODU has covered their last five games. Tulsa has covered their last four. Tulsa has had some quality games including an eight-point loss to Cincy and a win over SMU. Money is on ODU, and the line has moved in favorite of Tulsa. Sharp money is on ODU and 9 is a lot to lay for Tulsa. Not much feeling on the O/U so we will be taking the over.
Tuesday, Dec. 21
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – Kent State vs. Wyoming – 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Play: Wyoming -3 and Over 58
Kent St. isn’t that good. They’ve allowed 41+ points six times this year. Wyoming likes to run the ball. Kent St. can’t stop the run so we will be taking the over with no hesitation. Kent St. likes to air it out, which will stop the clock. Wyoming is the better team, so we’ll lay the points.
Frisco Bowl – UTSA vs. San Diego State – 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Play: SDSU +2 and Under 49
UTSA dominated all season going 9-4 ATS. They somehow were 3.5 underdogs in their C-USA Championship game, and they ended up beating WKU by a TD. SDSU had a great season as well but ended their season with a loss to Utah St after they had a lot of guys out. UTSA is finally getting the credit they deserve being two point favorites. We’re going to capitalize on this and take the Aztecs knowing Vegas has finally started giving UTSA the love they deserve. This will be the best defense UTSA will see all year. This O/U is very low. Give us the under.
Wednesday, Dec. 22
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl – Missouri vs. Army – 8 p.m., ESPN
Play: Missouri +4 and Over 57.5
Missouri is worth a look on the money line in this one. Army’s offense looked atrocious against Navy. Missouri will be able to score at will in this one, so give us the Zou and the over.
Thursday, Dec. 23
Frisco Football Classic – North Texas vs. Miami (Ohio) – 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Play: Miami Ohio -3 and Over 54.5
North Texas has covered six games in a row and finished the season 9-2-1 ATS including a big win over UTSA. Give us Miami Ohio and the over. North Texas finished 4-7-1 in O/U this season.
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl – UCF vs. Florida – 7 p.m., ESPN
Play: Florida -6.5 and Under 55.5
Gators are the better team, and their new coach will fire them up. Florida’s offense can look awful at times, however, so stay safe with the under.
Friday, Dec. 24
Hawai’i Bowl – Memphis vs. Hawai’I – 8 p.m., ESPN
Play: Memphis -7.5 and Under 56
Memphis hasn’t covered in their last three… lay the points. Memphis has a solid D and Hawaii’s offense can be nonexistent at times. Give us the under.
Saturday, Dec. 25
TaxAct Camellia Bowl – Georgia State vs. Ball State – 2:30 p.m., ESPN
Play: Ball St +4.5 and Over 50.5
These teams struggle to score. Ball St hasn’t hit a over in five games. Give us the over. Georgia St has played well this season, but all of the money is on Georgia St, so we will be taking Ball St.
Monday, Dec. 27
Quick Lane Bowl – Western Michigan vs. Nevada – 11 a.m., ESPN
Play: WMU -6 and Over 56
Really? Another MAC team. Going with WMU purely out of spite for the Nevada quarterback sitting out of this game to “prepare” for the NFL draft. Maybe have an outstanding Bowl game in front of a national audience and NFL scouts? That’s a pretty good way to raise your draft stock. Anyways this line opened at -2 Nevada and has moved all the way to +6 Nevada. Give us WMU. Maybe the backup QB will surprise us, so give us the over. It fell from 62 to 56.
Military Bowl – Boston College vs. East Carolina – 2:30 p.m., ESPN
Play: ECU +3 and Over 51.5
BC disappointed us a lot this season. Give us ECU. BC finished 3-9 O/U and ECU finished 4-7 O/U. Vegas’ algos set this total very low. Give us the over.
Tuesday, Dec. 28
Birmingham Bowl – Houston vs. Auburn – Noon, ESPN
Play: Houston -2.5 and Under 51.5
Is Bo Nix playing? Who knows or care. This is the classic SEC let down situation. Everyone knows Auburn sees they’re the small fav and takes them especially after their close game against Bama. Give us H-town. Auburn has a solid defense, and their offense is awful at times. Houston’s offense isn’t anything impressive either.
First Responder Bowl – Air Force vs. Louisville – 3:15 p.m., ESPN
Play: Louisville -1.5 and Over 55.5
It was tough getting a read on the Cardinals this season (And the ACC as a whole), but Malik Cunningham still has more to play for, and Louisville comes through on this one in a potential shootout.
Liberty Bowl – Mississippi State vs. Texas Tech – 6:45 p.m., ESPN
Play: Miss St -8.5 and Over 59.5
Really relying on Miss St offense and Will Rogers in this one. We think it will be a shootout and MSU will still cover. Texas Tech finished their season with a nice cover against Baylor and the over should have hit in that game. Miss St had a disappointing Egg Bowl performance but knowing Mike Leach’s offense we are expecting this over to hit and MSU will bounce back. Go State.
Holiday Bowl – UCLA vs. NC State – 8 p.m., Fox
Play: NC St -1 and Under 60
UCLA finished their season with three dominating wins and covers against Colorado, USC, and Cal. NC State finished the season with a miracle comeback against UNC but didn’t cover. NC State was one of the more consistent teams in the ACC this year and finished the season going 9-3. This is an ACC > Pac-12 situation. This total is a bit high as we hope the NC St defense can step up.
Guaranteed Rate Bowl – West Virginia vs. Minnesota – 10:15 p.m., ESPN
Play: Minnesota -4 and Under 44.5
Great bowl name. Ah yes, the Big Ten has entered the picture finally. Once we saw that disturbingly low O/U we knew. WVU was all over the map this year. They finished 6-6 ATS. They covered against Oklahoma and Va Tech and then they got overhyped. They were seven-point favs against Texas Tech (Lost) and only one-point underdogs to Baylor (Lost by 25). They then beat TCU and Iowa St. Minnesota’s defense steps up, slows this game down, and covers. Just a feeling – but it does feel like Big Ten teams are more disciplined and care about their bowl games more. Take the under.
Wednesday, Dec. 29
Fenway Bowl – SMU vs. Virginia – 11 a.m., ESPN
Play: UVA -2.5 and Over 71
Complete opposite scoring here. The total in this game is about 71. Take it over. We also believe this is an example of the ACC being better than the AAC. UVA can score points… you know that. The Cavs haven’t covered their last four. Lock them in.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl – Maryland vs. Virginia Tech – 2:15 p.m., ESPN
Play: Virginia Tech +3.5 and Over 55
Maryland had a pretty mediocre season, but they ended it well by dominating Rutgers. Va Tech had a similar season, where there were lots of ups and downs. Both teams finished 6-6, but the Hokies put up a much more impressive season and were much more competitive. Maryland’s defense is not good that’s why there over/unders were skewed all season to be way to high. They’re only notable result is a solid week 1 win against West Virginia. Take the points with Va Tech and the over.
Cheez-It Bowl – Clemson vs. Iowa State – 5:45 p.m., ESPN
Play: Clemson -1 and Under 44.5
Clemson turned their season around in the back half of the year. After they started the season 4-3, they finished on a five-game winning streak going 4-1 ATS. However, those four covers were their only four of the year. Iowa St. had a disappointed season as well. They were ranked #9 in the AP Poll with a home game against rival #10 Iowa, but they lost that game and finished the season unranked. They had a potential Heisman in running back Breece Hall and returning third year starting QB Brock Purdy. They had nice home wins against Ok St and Texas. Unfortunately, Breece Hall will not be playing in this bowl game, which is why we lean towards Clemson in this game. Breece was the heart and soul of this team. The Iowa St. defense was very solid all season and both offenses struggled all throughout the year. This is an under game.
Valero Alamo Bowl – Oregon vs. Oklahoma – 9:15 p.m., ESPN
Play: OU -4.5 and Over 61
Excited about this one. Oregon had an excellent season outside of its two games against Utah and their OT loss to Stanford. Their defense can be suspect at times, which is why we are looking at this over. Also, the potential No. 1 overall draft pick, Oregon’s DE, Kevin Thibodeaux will not play as he is saving his body for the NFL draft. OU’s QB Caleb Williams is the guy now, officially, after Rattler transferred. So, he will be motivated and will have time in the pocket to find the likes of Mims, Woods, Mario Williams, and Stoops. Oh, also Kennedy Brooks is one of the best running backs in the nation. Take Boomer Sooner and the over.
Thursday, Dec. 30
Duke’s Mayo Bowl – North Carolina vs. South Carolina – 11:30 a.m., ESPN
Play: UNC -9 and Over 58.5
UNC had a disappointing season as Howell was the Heisman favorite going into the season. On the SC side, don’t think we bet on one of their games this season. They were a very average team finishing 6-6 and 6-6 ATS. They got blown out 30-0 to Clemson, but then beat Auburn at home. They’re victories and covers feel like flukes. Take the much better Tar Heel team… assuming Howell plays. Howell will need to have a good Bowl game to help his draft stock. This is an over game as well. UNC doesn’t have a defense.
Music City Bowl – Tennessee vs. Purdue – 3 p.m., ESPN
Play: Tennessee -4.5 and Over 63.5
This game will be an example of the SEC being better than the Big Ten. Purdue being 8-4 is misleading as heck. They had big wins against Iowa and MSU, but honestly Iowa had a pretty bad offense. This spread should be wider, but we think Vegas wants to see action on Purdue to make money. The Volunteers surprisingly put up a lot of points this season. Purdue has a good offense too setting this total at 63.5. We’ll be fools and chase this over.
Peach Bowl – Michigan State vs. Pittsburgh – 7 p.m., ESPN
Play: Michigan St -2.5 and Over 56.5
We’re taking Sparty solely because Kenny Pickett sitting out this game. Sorry buddy, you’re not better than everybody else and you should be playing in this game. Trevor Lawrence risked it, Fields risked it, Mac Jones risked it, and Zach Wilson risked it last year. Seems like an easy way for a national audience to get to know who you are and flash your talents in front of NFL scouts… OH and maybe not bail on your teammates. Surprised this is still only a three point spread. Walker and MSU’s offense get it done. Also, Pitt finished an impressive 10-3 ATS… fade them.
Las Vegas Bowl – Wisconsin vs. Arizona State – 10:30 p.m., ESPN
Play: Wisconsin -7 and Under 42
We like this game a lot. Big Ten vs Pac-12. ASU has been over-favorited all year by the Vegas algos i.e. -2.5 vs Oregon St. (Loss 10-24), -3 vs BYU (Loss 17-27), -16.5 vs Wash St (No cover), +1.5 vs Utah (Loss 35-21), -13.5 against a bad Stanford team (Barely covered 28-10), a late TD helped them cover against a one-win Arizona team. Wisconsin is maybe one of the worse 8 win teams we’ve ever seen. Big Ten teams know how to play and stop Wisconsin football… Pac-12 teams do not. Wisconsin covers and the under hits.
Friday, Dec. 31
Gator Bowl – Wake Forest vs. Texas A&M – 11 a.m., ESPN
Play: Wake Forest +4.5 and Over 57.5
Unfortunately, one of our favorite players in College Football, Isaiah Spiller, will not be playing of the Aggies as he has declared for the draft. Unlike Kenny Pickett, this sit out makes sense. We think the ACC has been slightly underappreciated all season and this Aggies team has been a bit overrated since their Bama win (They did finish an impressive 4-2 ATS post-Bama game) Take Wake and the over as the Deacons can put up points in a jiffy.
Sun Bowl – Washington State vs. Miami – 2 p.m., CBS
Play: Miami -2 and Under 59.5
The one bowl game that CBS always gets. Always a greasy game, with a weird time, and the sun setting on the mountains in the background. Washington St. had a great year and we tweaked not taking them more often. They finished 8-4 ATS. We believe the Canes are favorited for a reason. ACC > Pac-12… let’s see it. Wash St at one point was 2-7 in O/U but finished their last three games with overs. If Miami wins, we think it was because there weren’t enough points scored by WSU.
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl – Central Michigan vs. Boise State – 2 p.m.
Play: Boise St -7.5 and Over 55.5
The new Barstool Sports bowl. It’s not on TV, but we’re sure you’ll be able to find it on social media with a special Barstool Sports stream, with their guys calling the game. It could be cool because they could incorporate a bunch of betting intel along with the broadcast. Boise St. could not cash in on overs this year finishing 2-10. However, they are more than capable of scoring so lock in the over. Vegas didn’t know when to make BSU a favorite this year as they finished 3-0 ATS as underdogs. Central Mich. Finished 4-0 ATS to finish the season. Lay the points.
CFP Semifinal: Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic – No. 4 Cincinnati vs. No. 1 Alabama – 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Play: Alabama -13.5 and Under 58
If you can get Bama under two TDs that’s a steal. If this Cincy team can cover this game props to them, but we saw enough in the SEC Championship what this Bama team can do. Jameson Williams being out against Auburn hurt them immensely. This is one of the most stacked linebacker cores we’ve seen in CFB. Will Anderson finished fifth in the Heisman voting, Christian Harris is a potential first round pick, and Henry To’o To’o is a beast. Alabama finished 6-6 ATS and Cincy finished 8-5 ATS. Cincy finished 3-0 ATS. Very confident in the Tide. The talent gap is huge. This feels like an under game. Both offenses can have off days and if there is any chance Cincy covers, it is because Bama didn’t score enough.
CFP Semifinal: Capital One Orange Bowl – No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Michigan – 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Play: Georgia -7.5 and Over 44.5
Michigan had an excellent season finishing 11-2 ATS and Harbaugh got the victory of his career finally beating Ohio St. Georgia instantly got a ton of hype and pushed to #1 in the polls after a 10-3 win over Clemson. However, we learned throughout the season that Clemson was not the Clemson of old. Before the Bama game the Bulldogs had averaged 6.9 oppg. We don’t have enough trust in the Michigan defense. Michigan’s run attack and offense will be able to do damage pushing the total over, but Georgia covers.
Saturday, Jan. 1
Outback Bowl – Penn State vs. Arkansas – Noon, ESPN2
Play: Arkansas +2 and Over 47
This line has fallen from Penn St -4.5 to -2. Penn St has a stellar defense, but we think this line is flat out wrong. Arkansas is the better team. Take the points and over.
Citrus Bowl – Iowa vs. Kentucky – 1 p.m., ABC
Play: Iowa +2.5 and Under 44
Interesting. Another Big Ten / SEC matchup. The Iowa offense is not. good. They know how to win Big Ten games and that’s it. Kentucky won this year with their defense, so take this total under. UK’s wins do not impress us so Iowa sneaks this one out.
Fiesta Bowl – Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma State – 1 p.m., ESPN
Play: Ok St. +2.5 and Over 45.5
Really like this game. Both teams are fairly similar, but this is going to be the best team ND has faced all year. The Irish couldn’t handle Cincy’s defense and that’ll likely be the issue for them in this game. We have a feeling this will be a close game, where both teams will pick up the tempo of their offense, so take this low total over.
Rose Bowl – Ohio State vs. Utah – 5 p.m., ESPN
Play: Ohio St. -6.5 and Over 66.5
The Granddaddy of them all. OSU will appreciate this weather much more compared to their game against UM as it favors their pass attack. This will be the best offense Utah has faced all year. We’ve had some very good Rose Bowls recently, but Ohio St blows out Utah in this game. Over hits.
Sugar Bowl – Ole Miss vs. Baylor – 8:45 p.m., ESPN
Play: Baylor ML and Over 55
It’s really comical how Ole Miss is known for scoring points with their fast-paced offense, yet they are only 3-9 in O/Us. Now they face a solid Baylor defense without their QB Matt Corral. Baylor finished 9-4 ATS and Ole Miss finished 9-3. Baylor has shown that they can stop high-powered offenses by holding OK to 14 points and TTU to 24. The money will likely be on Lane Train’s team, so take the Bears. People will think that with no Corral in the Ole Miss offense won’t be able to move the ball, so think the opposite and take the lower total over.
Tuesday, Jan. 4
Texas Bowl – LSU vs. Kansas State – 9 p.m., ESPN
Play: Kansas St -2 and Over 47
No Coach O and LSU QB Max Johnson has transferred to rival Texas A&M after beating them in their last game. Based on that the line has flipped from LSU -2.5 to K State -2. LSU will be out of sorts, so lay the points with Kansas St. LSU’s games have gone under 4 of the last 5 games, but honestly the under should’ve hit in their game with A&M. Similar with K State, where their totals have gone under in 4 of their last 5. We like this low low total to go over.
Monday, Jan. 10
CFP National Championship – 8 p.m., ESPN
Thanks for reading! Good luck.