Since Early November, Johnny Locks has headed the Action on Fourth’s NFL picks.
November 8th we came at you with a Giants Money Line lock of the day… and we haven’t looked back. We’ve been red hot going 13-4 and up 9.2 units!
Our last free article was our CFB Bowl picks, which finished a casual 14-8.
We’re back again with picks for what should be a great Wildcard weekend…
Colts at Bills (-6.5) O/U 51 – 12:05 pm CBS
Bills as you may know have been red hot… they have three losses: To the defending Super Bowl Champs, a huge Derrick Henry game, and the Murray to DHop Hail Mary. They finished this season with an NFL best 12-4 ATS (against the spread). Diggs is expected to play through his injury.. he was limited during Thursday’s practice.
Colts also had a solid year finishing the season 11-5, and earned the AFC wildcard.
The Play – This is maybe the hardest game on the slate. Colts have not covered in their last three games, and knowing how hot the Bills have been its almost impossible not to take them as less than a TD favorites. We see there is a 60-40 split, with 60% on the home fav. The high O/U of 51 alerts us that Vegas thinks there is going to be points.. Bills know how to score, but also have a solid defense. Shootout or not Bills -6.5 All Day.
Rams at Seahawks (-3) O/U 42 – 3:40 pm FOX
We’re going to get to see Mr. Jalen Ramsey try to lock down D.K. Metcalf. Jared Goff’s status remains in question, but we are confident he will play.
This season the Rams beat the Hawks in their first meeting, while also covering -2.5… then two weeks ago the Hawks beat the Rams also covering -1.5. People became concerned about the Seahawks when their scoring slowed down in Nov and Dec.
The Play – Is the Over 42. Couple reasons – Both teams play and are built to score points. Reverse Logic here – Rams’ games have gone under in their last four games. They’ve scored 18, 9, 23, 24. We think we can expect two TDs out of them. Seahawks have also slowed down their scoring, but remember back at the beginning of the season, when no one could stop them. Vegas and the public see 39 points and 29 points in their first two meetings… Everything is telling us to take the under.. We’re on the Over… if Rams don’t score we know the Seahawks will cover -3.
Buccaneers at Washington (+8) O/U 44.5 – 7:15 pm NBC
Washington somehow snuck into the playoffs. The closing line for their last game against the Eagles was -6.5, which they didn’t cover however it opened at like -1. Tampa Tom & Company have been building up for this playoff game.
The Play – Buccaneers -8. Our only concern in this game is if the Washington Defense, which is very solid, slows down the Bucs and gets to Brady. Bucs can also put up points hitting 30+ 6 times this year. When they see a good D, however, it’s a nightmare like the Saints game or even Bears game. Lock in Bucs -8 and the Under.
Sunday
Ravens at Titans (+3) O/U 54.5 – 12:05 pm ABC/ESPN
Super interesting game because it’s a rematch from last year, where the Titans won 28-12. Henry will be relied on heavily by the Titans. The Titans finished 7-9 ATS and the Ravens finished 10-6 covering their last five.
The Play – Ravens -3, and this is the lock of the weekend. Ravens are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now… they’re seeking revenge as the the Titans beat them and covered this year and in the playoffs last year. We actually thought the Titans should be favored at home. They’re not, it’s a sign… Ravens -3.
Bears at Saints (-10) O/U 47 – 3:40 pm CBS
Bears hardily deserve to be here, however, there is a case to make about them covering.
The Play – Bears +10. We like this line a lot. The Bears have hit 30 points in 4 of their last 5 games. The Bears D will step up… the question here is can the Offense score enough points to cover? We think so, and if not we’re riding the Under 47
Browns at Steelers (-6) O/U 47.5 – 7:15 pm NBC
These two teams played each other last week, in a must win game for the Browns that sneaked by winning by two… stopping the Steelers on a final two-point conversion. They did this without Big Ben.
The Play – Vegas is excited about the Steelers at home taking six points from them… This tells us all we need to know. An empty Heinz field for a hot Cleveland team?! Yep, Lock it in Browns +6. Teasing up to +13 or even +14 would be huge… crossing 7, 10, 13, 14.
Good luck this weekend. We’ll be back next week.