1 Unit = ~5% of Bankroll/betting budget in play. Plays with listed units are plays I have already taken. Unit sizing is based on odds, confidence, or amount of bets I want to fire. Other considerations are possible live bets, passion plays for fun, or possible late additions at gametime.
“ATTD” = Any Time Touchdown Scorer
Betting is always for fun, only bet what you can afford.
Analysis:
New York Jets (+6.5) at Cleveland Browns (-6.5)
I imagine the Browns having a similar game to last week. 6.5 may be too many points, but I am confident in a Browns W as a biased fan. I think both RB’s should see rushing TD’s this week against a younger Jets front 7.
- Plays
- Nick Chubb ATTD -110 1u
- Kareem Hunt ATTD +170 1u
- Parlay +427 .5u
Washington Commanders (+1) at Detroit Lions (-1)
The Detroit offense faces another tough front 7 today with the Commanders. However, I would say the Washington Offense is less versatile than Philadelphia. The Commanders looked solid last week against the Jaguars, but the Jaguars put up nearly 400 yards of offense. Dan Campbell is a football guy, and I am rolling with the football guy today.
- Plays
- Jamaal Williams ATTD +130 1u
- Consider
- Detroit ML -108
- J.D. McKissic ATTD +350 (sprinkle)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints (+2.5)
Alvin Kamara out is a big time loss. New Orleans is a tough place to play and the Buccaneers receiving corps is banged up. New Orleans barely squeaked out a win against Atlanta last week, but that was week one. Tom Brady has had trouble with the Saints recently, and I expect a great game here.
- Plays
- Mike Evans ATTD +130 1u
- Consider
- Tampa Bay -2.5
Carolina Panther (-1) at New York Giants (+1)
Giants coming in as slight dogs against the panthers, who did put up some points against a hyped Cleveland Defense. Both these teams faced solid week 1 defenses and dropped 20+ while letting up 350+ yards each, yet the total for the game is only 43.5. I don’t think Carolina has an answer for Saquads, and I don’t think the Giants have an Answer for CMC.
- Plays
- Not Over Thinking it TD (0-1)- Saquan Barkley -115 ATTD + Christian McCaffrey -130 ATTD +220 1u. Also taking them Straight 1u each.
- Over 43.5 1u
- Consider
- Giants ML -104
New England Patriots (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)
Pittsburgh getting no love here after just beating the reigning AFC Champs. The Patriots looked horrendous on offense last week. TJ Watt definitely is affecting this line, but with Cam Heyward, Ogunjobi, and the solid secondary coming off a big time win. Bellicheck has typically dominated Tomlin, but because we are post Brady era, I gotta passion bet the Steelers.
- Plays
- Steelers Ml +132 1u
Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)
No Pittman hurts the Colts offense. The Jaguars looked like they could move the ball. I expect another close game for the Colts here.
- Consider
- Jaguars ML +148
- JTay ATTD -160
- Etienne ATTD +230
Miami Dolphins (+3.5) at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
After a solid week 1 showing, the Dolphins come in as pretty significant dogs. JK Dobbins was ruled out, hurting the Ravens Rushing Attack. With the solid Defense and Offense appearing more competent than New England, watch out for a Dolphins upset.
- Plays
- Dolphins +3.5 1u
- Dolphins ML +152 .5u
- Tyreek Hill ATTD +170 1u
Atlanta Falcons (+10) at Los Angeles Rams (-10)
Rams should bounce back after a poor showing against the Bills. The Falcons looked much better than expected against the Saints, but they shouldn’t be able to keep up.
- Consider
- Rams ML
Seattle Seahawks (+8.5) at San Francisco 49ers (-8.5)
Seahawks coming in as big dogs on the road. San Fran in a must win conference game after dropping an easier game on the schedule to Chicago. Should be solid weather, so expect Lance’s first start we can learn from him.
- Consider
- Trey Lance ATTD +190
Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) at Dallas Cowboys (+7.5)
Dallas still has a solid defense and home field advantage to be getting 7.5 points. It can be hard to game plan for a QB lacking a ton of NFL experience because you may not know what the opposing coordinator is trying to accomplish with their strengths. However, Burrow is elite and Tee Higgins is active. I expect Cincinnati to bounce back.
- Plays
- Tee Higgins ATTD +180 1u
- His father recently passed. He’s gonna ball out for him. Got that feeling.
- Tee Higgins ATTD +180 1u
Houston Texans (+10) at Denver Broncos (-10)
Texans looked solid against the Colts, but are facing a much better opponent in the Broncos. Broncos should take care of business in Wilson’s Denver debut.
- Plays
- Javonte Williams ATTD -120 1u
- Melvin Gordon ATTD +125 1u
- Consider
- Denver ML -460
Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5)
Raiders look to bounce back after a tough outing against a solid Chargers team. The Cardinals looked great at times last year, but DHop is still out for them and they lost some solid contributors, notably Jones to the Raiders.
- Plays
- James Conner ATTD -120 1u
- Without Edmonds, Conner has great chances each game.
- James Conner ATTD -120 1u
Chicago Bears (+10.5) at Green Bay Packers (-10.5)
Rodgers historically is great at covering following a loss. Especially against the Bears. Rodgers owns the Bears, but game conditions may not be the greatest again and 10.5 is a lot of points. Hoping the Bears can run it down their throats all game but I am prepared to be disappointed.
- Plays
- Justin Fields ATTD +310 .3u
- AJ Dillon ATTD +135 1u
- Consider
- Packers -10.5
- Aaron Jones ATTD -110