College Football is finally back. Action on Fourth has been scouting out teams throughout this summer and in this article, we will reveal which teams will exceed expectations and which teams to fade. We have regular season win predictions along with Heisman Trophy winners with value.
A big factor involved with these predictions is performance from the previous season. Usually this translates to heighten expectations and arguably the hardest bet to make on a team is their season total under because naturally people are bullish positive thinkers and bettors. Another strong factor is looking at how difficult a team’s nonconference schedule is. Usually it’s three games against cupcakes, but then you’ll get the occasionally nonconference primetime matchup.
- Oklahoma Under 9.5 wins (-125)
This is our favorite play in the article. We made money off the Sooners last year with Lincoln Riley, Caleb Williams and Co., but now with both moving to USC and Boomer having many of their wins last year come by a touchdown or less, we will gladly be taking this under.
- Michigan Under 9.5 wins (Even)
This is an interesting one. Obviously, Michigan is coming off the best season anyone could’ve asked for including a huge home Ohio St win (the first for Harbaugh) and a CFP appearance. Additionally, UM’s schedule this season is extremely easy with the only difficult games being at Iowa, home MSU and at OSU. We’ll assume they go 1-2 in those game and then slip up in a third random game to finish the season with 9 wins. JJ McCarthy will be at QB and we aren’t high on him.
- Clemson Under 10.5 wins (-130)
The ACC was a mess last year. Expectations are still high for this Clemson squad with DJ back at QB. The ACC is getting respect this year from AP voters with Miami, NC St, and Wake Forest all in the top 25. Factor in an at ND and we’ll take this under. (However, a small way to hedge this bet would be to take DJ Uiagalelei to win the Heisman at 25/1).
- Illinois Over 4.5 wins (-130)
The Illini have Bret Bielema at the helm for a second year. The Illini had a decent squad on them last year with big wins at Penn St and at Minnesota (The Big Ten was awful last year) and then HUGE chokings and blowing fourth quarter leads against Purdue, Maryland, and Rutgers. Last year’s O/U was 3.5 wins which cashed. The over should cash again with a favorable schedule. A big factor will be week 1 against Wyoming, where the Illini are 10-point favorites. You can’t miss these and then beat Chattanooga and win three Big Ten games. Update – We already got one win.
- Utah Under 9 wins
Utah had a good scheme on offense and a lock down defense that took them to the Rose Bowl last year. Expect the Pac-12 try a little harder as we’re hoping for a couple of upsets for this number to go under. They have a huge game week 1 at the Swamp against the Gators.
- Nebraska Under 7.5 wins
This one is crazy. Are people that bullish still on Scott Frost? Nebraska was easily one of the best 3-win teams last year and killed it ATS, but going from 3 to 8 is a jump that we do not think Casey Thompson, the Texas transfer QB, can make. Update – We already got one loss. Thanks, Scott Frost.
- Toledo Over 8.5 wins (-105)
Toledo runs the MAC this year. They are the most complete team.
Conference Winners
- Texas to win the Big 12 Championship +280
We have faith in the Longhorns’ new QB, Quinn Ewers. The five-star QB will be paired with one of the Heisman favorites, running back Bijan Robinson. This should be a deadly duo. Ewers also has solid receiving options in Worthy, Neyor, Hall (Suspended) and Bama transfer Billingsley at TE. When a new coach comes onto a new team, it takes a couple of years to get it where you want it to be between recruiting and brand image. This is year two for Coach Sark, and we believe he should be able to raise the program to a new level after missing out on a bowl game last year. The Big 12 feels weak this year and after seeing Bama in week 3, UT will be ready to run the Big 12 and get revenge on Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry.
- USC to win the Pac-12 +250
This is a play on two things. 1) Being bullish on Caleb Williams and Lincoln Riley along with maybe the best receiving corp in the country. The Pittsburgh WR transfer, Jordan Addison, was recently selected Preseason AP All-American. 2) The Pac-12 is going to be bad. Utah had a stellar season after blowing out Oregon twice, but after those two teams no one else was competitive. We think Utah doesn’t meet expectations and USC wins this conference.
Heisman Trophy
C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young, the QBs for OSU and Bama, are the huge front runner favorites this season. Earlier in the summer these numbers were flipped but now C.J. Stroud is the favorite at +215 and then last year’s winner Bryce Young is +350. We don’t like either of these bets because there is no value in our opinion. It is not worth playing these now because the risk of injuries and other BS is too high. Even if you get good closing line value where CJ Stroud is +120 come week four, we will not have any regret. Bryce Young was reliant on Jameson Williams and John Metchie to get open and with this not being the best Bama receiving corp and Gibbs being a beast of a running back it will be very hard for Young to replicate his stats from last year.
Caleb Williams, the Sophomore QB for USC, is now 6/1 after being 8/1 a few weeks ago. This one is debatable but ultimately a pass for now. It feels like a hype trap. USC would really have to exceed expectations that are already high.
The running backs favorites are OSU RB TreVeyon Henderson (34/1), Texas RB Bijan Robinson (40/1) and Bama RB Jahymr Gibbs (50/1). All three will be heavily relied on, but ultimately all are a fade as it is difficult to win the Heisman especially with their QBs being favorites.
The Alabama middle linebacker, Will Anderson, is 30/1 to win the Heisman. He is seeing a ton of action after finishing fifth in the voting last year. This is a longshot worth taking.
Another longshot worth taking is Uiagalelei at 25/1. If Clemson has a stellar season, this will be cashing.
The Hawaiian QB, Dillon Gabriel, will be the starter for the Sooners. 30/1 is solid value but we’re not placing any action with minimal scout on him.
All in all, Will Anderson and DJ Uiagalelei are good deep value picks and if any of the top three QBs slip up a week or two, you could get them at better odds before conference play starts. We think the RBs are a fade. Of the three we like Bijan Robinson the best.