Betting Recap
Picks Given: 7-14-1 -4.2U Initial Amount: 19.33U
Considerations Given: 10-5 +/- on 1U Bet: +7.3U
Implied Picks: 2-1 +/- on 1U Bet: +.5U
Totals: 19-20 +3.6U Initial Amount: 37.33U ROI: +9.64%
Notable Plays & Considerations: Pittsburgh ML +220 and +6.5, NYG +200 and +5.5, Kareem Hunt ATTD +260, Kenneth Gainwell ATTD +370
Analysis Recap
Launched on a lot of plays to start the NFL year. Typically given picks and considerations won’t surpass 20 Units unless the slate is too good. Lowered the Unit size closer to 2.5% of the bankroll/betting budget to accommodate the action.
Steelers (+6.5) at Bengals (-6.5)
Coach Tomlin continues his week 1 dominance. Line moved to 7.5 pre-game. Easy cover. TJ Watt injury hurts Pitt down the road.
Giants (+5.5) at Titans (-5.5)
The Titans defense was worn down by Saquan. The absence of Harold Landry hurt the Titans. Ballsy by Daboll to go for the 2 and the win over kicking the PAT.
Chiefs (-6) at Cardinals (+6)
Andy Reid continues to dominate as a road favorite. Brilliant schemes on display. Mahomes had a good connection to Juju.
SNF Buccaneers (-2.5) at Cowboys (+2.5)
Brady and the Bucs post a dominant performance over a concerning looking Cowboys team. Brady’s last week one?
Browns (+1.5) at Panthers (-1.5)
Great call on Kareem Hunt, saw +280 before the game for ATTD. Closer game than anticipated, but the Browns looked solid. Rookie Cade York with a 58 Yarder for the Win. Baker really thought.
49’ers (-7) at Bears (+7)
I was very wrong about this game! Da Bears played the conditions much better than the Niners. Fields made some good escapes. Eberflus appeared to be a much more coherent coach so far compared to Nagy. Bear down. An early Elijah Mitchell injury killed our largest bet of the day.
Packers (-1.5) at Vikings (+1.5)
Justin Jefferson with a career day hurt our pick, but the Packers put up a terrible performance. The Vikings looked legit and their fans were loud in that stadium. New NFC North favorites?
Raiders (+3) at Chargers (-3)
The Chargers looked great at times in a sloppy win over the Raiders. Davante looked like his Green Bay self. JHerbo kept his eyes downfield and didn’t run as much as expected. Ekeler also saw a decreased workload even in the win.
Patriots (+3.5) at Dolphins (-3.5)
The Patriots looked tough on offense, likely as a result of the Coordinator situation. The Dolphins offense was solid. Hill had great usage in his first game.
Jaguars (+2.5) at Commanders (+2.5)
Both offenses looked significantly improved. Antonio Gibson saw 0 3rd down snaps, which was interesting. Etienne looked to have his production diminished by Robinson, yet looked explosive at times when he wasn’t making mistakes.
Colts (-7) at Texans (+7)
Matt Ryan led a nice comeback but ultimately fell short as this game ended a tie. Jonathan Taylor and Pittman looked Elite, and rookie Stingley looked solid on defense for the Texans.
Ravens (-7) at Jets (+7)
The Ravens dominated their old QB Flacco in this one. They capitalized on some big plays and took away any momentum the Jets would get.
Eagles (-3.5) at Lions (+3.5)
The Lions’ highly paid offense looked solid against a formidable Eagles defense. Williams got solid red zone work as expected for them, Swift ran excellent, and Amon-Ra St. Brown performed well as a WR1. AJ Brown saw massive volume while Devonta Smith saw no volume as the Eagles ran all over the Lions.
Saints (-5.5) at Falcons (+5.5)
I am mad I didn’t think of Hill to score. Saints completed a solid comeback as Michael Thomas had two TD’s in his post injury recovery debut. He could prove to be their red zone guy.
Broncos (-7) at Seahawks (+7)
The 12th man was fired up in Wilson’s return to Seattle. Penny and Metcalf looked solid as the cornerstone of the Seahawks Offense. Redzone troubles cost the Broncos this one.
Thursday Night Football Preview
Chargers (+4) at Chiefs (-4)
Elite quarterback matchup in an AFC West Showdown. I imagine this can be a high scoring match. Keenan Allen has been ruled out in a big loss for the Chargers, making Josh Palmer, Gerald Everett, and DeAndre Carter primary candidates to see an increased workload. This game is a toss up, but with homefield and the WR loss I can see the Chiefs squeaking one out in close fashion, though I won’t be betting that.
Picks for the Game
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ATTD +220. .5u
MVS led the Chiefs WR’s in Snap % and Routes ran. Mahomes hinted at a “New guy each week”
Mike Williams ATTD +145. 1u
Mike Williams will be the primary redzone target with Allen out, big play threat, coming off career bad week.
Gerald Everett ATTD +240. 1u
Herbert targets tight ends at high levels. Scored last week and could see red zone targets with Allen’s absence.
Consider
Josh Palmer Over 45.5 Receiving Yards
Marquez Valdes-Scantling over 45.5 Receiving Yards
Jerrick Mckinnon ATTD +350
Saw great usage while the game was close in Arizona.
Betting is always for fun. Bet Responsibly.