Action on Fourh NFL Weekend Preview
7 Hours of commercial free football is back.
NFL coaches had months to gameplan for Sunday. Practice pace isn’t always game pace, making some offenses stagnant week 1- a possible reason for the trend of Unders hitting at a greater rate week 1, ~53% since 2000. The extra time to gameplan likely contributes to underdogs covering at better rates, 175-155-14, also 53%.
1 Unit = ~5% of Bankroll/betting budget in play. Plays with listed units are plays I have taken. Unit sizing is based on odds, confidence, or amount of bets I want to fire. Other considerations are possible live bets, passion plays for fun, or possible late adds.
“ATTD” = Any Time Touchdown Scorer
A ton of promos on the books this weekend- free bets, risk free bets, odds boosts, etc. Take advantage, murder the books. The boosts allow easy opportunities to place arbitrage bets for guaranteed profit.
Futures:
- Parlay- Bills AFC East winners, Colts AFC South Winners, Packers NFC North Winners, Buccaneers NFC South Winners. +466 5U. Add Eagles+Cowboys to it as toss ups for their division. Cole Kmet Over 3.5 Receiving TD’s -110 5U. Deep Value: Derek Carr MVP 22/1, Tua MVP 45/1, Raiders to win the AFC 25/1
- Regular season win totals: Bucs Under, Titans Under and Broncos Under
Notable Week 1 Games and Thoughts:
- 49’ers (-7) at Bears (+7)
- The Chicago Bears are in full rebuild, team and stadium. Praying Eberflus can keep the game close for pride. Trent Williams was recently voted the best OL in the league, to go along with the best FB and blocking tight end in Kittle in the NFL. Kittle is dealing with a recent groin injury. Expect the Niners to control the trenches all game on a ripped up field regardless. Potential downpour in Chicago Sunday. Niners could win big enough to pull the starters. Pick Of the Game: Elijah Mitchell AnyTime TouchDown +135 2U.
- Browns (+1.5) at Panthers (-1.5)
- Baker and the Panthers try to get revenge on the Browns. Tons of movement on this line, due to Deshaun drama and the trade. Weather is calling for storms, which could affect both team’s passing games. The Browns are going to try and pound the ball regardless, so rain is a huge advantage for them and their 2nd rated O-line in the NFL. I am biased, but I can see the Browns winning big. Value Play: Kareem Hunt ATTD +260 1U. He gets red zone touches.
- Steelers (+6.5) at Bengals (-6.5)
- Super Bowl Losers are 8-13 SU and 4-17 ATS since SB34 (Winners 18-4 SU, 13-7-2 ATS following Thursday). Mike Tomlin, 14-6 as a week 1 Dog ATS. Incredible coach. Recently named Big Dick Mitch the starter. Mitch loves his TE’s, so I like Friermuth for a big game. Divisional games on the road are tough, so I’d only consider +6.5 a play and +220 as a sprinkle. The Bengals made big improvements on their O-line this off season, but the loss of Larry Ogunjobi on the D-line hurts. Might be a rainy game. POG: Mixon ATTD -125 1U, Najee Harris ATTD +120 1U, Pat Friermuth +250 .5U. SGP- +1492 .2u. Burrow over 1.5 TD -172 and Boyd (+230), Higgins (+155), and Chase (+120) ATTD’s also don’t seem like bad bets pending gametime weather.
- Patriots (+3.5) at Dolphins (-3.5)
- New Look Dolphins. Dolphins won this game last year 17-16 in week 1. Storms might be brewing in Miami around gametime. Regardless, I expect the Patriots to utilize their RB’s a lot and look to control the line. Damien Harris (+135) and Hunter Henry (+280) were TD Magnets for the Pats last year, with 15 and 9 respectively. 2nd year RB Stevenson has been getting a lot of buzz for the Pats as well and could see a good amount of touches. POG: Damien Harris ATTD +135 1u, Hunter Henry ATTD +280 .3u, Rhamondre Stevenson ATTD +180, .5u. Good value for potential red zone involvement.
- Giants (+5.5) at Titans (-5.5)
- Titans defensive stud Harold Landry recently tore his ACL. BIG time loss. Vrabel is an elite coach and has the home field advantage. King Henry and SaQuads return from injuries, giving us a great RB showdown. +5.5 and +200 aren’t bad value for the Giants if their offensive line investments pan out against a now diminished titans run defense. Weather might be sloppy for this game as well. POG: Saquan ATTD +120 1u. Not overthinking it parlay- Saquan and Henry ATTD +240 1u. Consider Under.
- Packers (-1.5) at Vikings (+1.5)
- NFC North battle. Vikings are a solid at home and made some good off-season acquisitions, including Smith from the Packers. Rodgers WR committee should be balanced, but I expect a more run heavy approach for the team, especially if their defense is as good as the hype and stays off the field. JJ will be across from Jaire for a great matchup. POG: Adam Thielen ATTD +185 1U.
- Chiefs (-6) at Cardinals (+6)
- Andy Reid 33-1 SU as a road favorite. JJ Watt and Zach Ertz recently were banged up, but I still anticipate a battle here. Two great offensive minded coaches going at it with months of prep. Both defenses are solid, but arguably not as strong in some areas with the departures of Chandler Jones and Tyrann Mathieu. James Conner is a TD magnet who beat cancer. How can ya not love the guy. POG: Conner ATTD -105 1U, consider over 54.5
- Raiders (+3) at Chargers (-3)
- New look raiders with Chandler Jones across Max Crosby and Davante in the offense. Chargers added Khalil Mack to go alongside Joey Bosa. Elite talent all over this game. POG: Justin Herbert over 12.5 Rush Yards -115 1U. I like him to step up and run a few times this game against a good pass rush.
- SNF Buccaneers (-2.5) at Cowboys (+2.5)
- Brady is dominant in his career as a road favorite. The Cowboys lost solid offensive and defensive contributors this off season in Collins, Cooper, Gregory, and Wilson. That said, they still got studs all over their roster. Bucs filled some gaps they lost with the Hicks signing, but their offensive line has been banged up in training camp and Brady has allegedly been in the Dog House from his wife. This game was a shootout last year and could be again. POG: Buccaneers -2.5 1u, Leonard Fournette ATTD -110 1u, Ezekiel Elliot ATTD -105 1U.
Less Notable Games and Picks:
- Colts (-7) at Texans (+7)- SGP- Colts ML, J. Taylor ATTD -140 1u
- Ravens (-7) at Jets (+7)- Mark Andrews ATTD +105 .5u, Lamar ATTD +125 .5U
- Eagles (-3.5) at Lions (+3.5)- Gainwell ATTD +370 .33u. Miles Sanders scored 0 TD’s last year, Gainwell could be their red zone guy. Crowded Offense though.
- Saints (-5.5) at Falcons (+5.5)- Kamara ATTD -125 1u. Consider Saints ML.
- Jaguars (+2.5) at Commanders (+2.5) – New look offenses- hard bets. Consider Kirk ATTD +200, Jones ATTD +250, Lawrence over 16.5 Rush yards, and the Under.
Mr. Shitter $1 Prayer Parlay
- ATTD- Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, Jonathan Taylor, Damien Harris, Mark Andrews, Elijah Mitchell, Austin Ekeler, James Conner, Dalvin Cook. +303065
Betting is always for fun. Only bet what you can afford.