It’s the best time of the year. The weather starts turning into spring, you hear the CBS March Madness Music, and you know there are plenty of upsets and buzzer-beaters coming your way.
We’re breaking down what we’re seeing in the College Hoops world heading into March. Who’s trending up, who’s trending down, who are some potential sleepers, and any value we see in the futures market.
Who’s Trending Up
Gonzaga obviously is as dominant as ever. The only concern we have is the fact that their regular season competition is poor, but they have not been playing down to their competition.
LSU is hoping to really solidify their need to be in the tourney by winning at Arkansas this weekend and if not they end with a fairly easy home Vandy game. LSU has junior Javonte Smart and Freshman stud Cameron Thomas who can both score, and this Tigers team would be a scary team in the tournament.
Loyola Chicago and Drake. This is an interesting one as these teams split their regular season matchups, but at the same time haven’t really beaten anyone else. Drake started the season undefeated 18-0 and Loyola sits at #21 in the AP Poll. If both teams can get into the tournament it would be impressive.
Michigan. Yes, these guys took a lot of time off, but they are back. The Blue easily beat Wisconsin, won a close one against Ohio St, and a dominated Iowa Thursday night. They have the National Championship in the back of their minds with a Big Ten Championship nearly wrapped-up.
Michigan’s in-state rivals’ Michigan St is trending in the right direction too. Huge wins against the Illini and Ohio St have them back on the bubble. MSU is 6-9 right now in the Big Ten, and they finish with a gauntlet of a schedule, which includes at Maryland Sunday, Home IU, and then back-to-back Michigan which is crazy. Win at Maryland and IU and split Michigan and they’ll easily be back in the tournament.
UConn. Watch out. This team with James Bouknight back is really good. They are 7-2 with him and the two losses include Villanova and a loss to Creighton in OT. They are 4-4 without Bouknight. Potential Cinderella story right here.
Who’s Trending Down
Easy first one here – Wisconsin. They need to win at home against Illinois this weekend to get back in their groove. However, our take, a negative one, is the Badgers have been overrated all season and they should be happy they are still in the rankings. They need to figure out how to score.
Louisville was sitting comfortably in the rankings at one point in the season, and now they are concerned about even getting in the tourney. They play Duke Saturday and end with Virginia Tech and UVA. So, plenty of opportunities left.
UNC – The Tar Heels suffered a bad loss this week losing to a mediocre Marquette team by 13. Their season ends with this Saturday home against #11 Florida St, Monday at Syracuse, and finish with home against Duke. In our opinion, the Duke game is obviously a must-win and we’re going to label the at Cuse a must-win as well as Syracuse is sitting on the bubble right now too. If the tourney was to start today we’d put them in.
Missouri has suffered some losses recently including being swept by Ole Miss, a loss to Georgia, and a loss to Arkansas who’s trending up. They finish with Missouri on Wednesday and LSU next Saturday. They’re looking at maybe a 7 seed right, but just two to three weeks ago they were a comfortable 4 seed.
Who we like come Tourney time + Some Sleepers
We assume you’ve seen Gonzaga, Baylor, and Michigan play. Those three are definitely capable of a Final Four run.
We also like Alabama the way they play is suited for a deep run. Petty is back after not going to the NBA and he is surrounded by a really good defensive team. Their coach preaches to them about shooting threes and layups only. So, that’s what they do, and if they catch fire from deep watch out.
Iowa doesn’t get enough credit especially after losing to the Illini, Ohio St., and Michigan last night (which surprised us). However, this is a gritty team with the potential National Player of the Year. They don’t play the best defense, but they play some quality offense. Iowa is too gritty to get knocked out in the first weekend. Surefire Sweet Sixteen team and hope they get hot from there.
Texas is right there also. They’ve had a tough schedule and arguably in a better conference than the Big Ten. We love seeing upperclassman lead the charge and UT does exactly that with Matt Coleman (Senior), Andrew Jones (Junior), and Courtney Ramey (Junior). All guards who play gritty and can score. They all average 31+ minutes a game.
Oklahoma can 100% make a run. Austin Reaves is a baller and so is De’vion Harmon.
We mentioned UConn as a sleeper we like a lot. We also really like Creighton as a sleeperish team at a potential 4 seed. Marcus Zegarowski is as experienced as it gets and can lead this team far in the tournament. It reminds us of Purdue in the last tournament with Carsen Edwards leading the charge for Purdue and the rest of the band lined up for threes. Cold-blooded is what we like to see.
Finally, a super sleeper is Drake from the Missouri Valley. They started the season 18-0, so they know how to win. Forward Hemphill averages 14 and 6 and both he and guard Roman Penn shoot well from three, 33.3%+.
Futures Market (As of Monday 2/22)
We think a lot of value is gone with Gonzaga at +200, but Baylor still holds its own at +355 because they shoot well enough to win a ‘Ship. Michigan at +750 is more than enticing (This number is before their Iowa win).
Some big juicy lines we like include Texas at +3500, Texas Tech at +4000, and Alabama at +2600.